End of Week Nuggets Optimism: The glass is still half full...

by Nate Timmons on Feb 10, 2012 2:57 PM MST in Denver Nuggets: News and Opinion

Count me among those that are not too worried about the Denver Nuggets. Are there serious problems? Yes. Can the Nuggets rebound from their current losing streak? Of course.

Jeff Morton, I'm stealing your "Weekly Optimism" gimmick ... I'll toss you 50% of the royalties. Perhaps some tasty chicken nuggets? When you hear the word "Nuggets" what is the first thing that comes to mind? For me, it's a bit of a cringe followed by a cool splash of reality ...

... the Nuggets are beat up and tired. That is the reality. It bites, but not as bad Ethan Hawke's acting in that awful 1994 film.

The Nuggets rotations are out of whack and some could argue the rotations are just totally wacky. Danilo Gallinari and Timofey Mozgov are out. Big deal? Yes, it's a very big deal ... about 14-feet worth.

So far we've seen two guys try to replace Gallo in the starting lineup. Julyan Stone had the first crack at replacing the Italian Stallion, but the kid from Virginia was only granted seven minutes of playing time.

Next up against the Warriors it was Rudy Fernandez's turn to play Gallo for a night. The Spaniard played 37 minutes, but had a rough night from the floor finishing 4-13 shooting for 9 points. Fernandez has been one of the lone Nuggets who looks like he gives a damn no matter what the score is and Karl rewarded that play with the start.

The Rookie from UTEP and 6'6'' and 185 pound Fernandez are not Gallo clones. Gallo goes 6'10'' and 225 pounds, he leads the team in scoring with 17 per game. Mr. Italy plays solid defense and can help out on the boards. He's the one getting the opponent into foul trouble with his menacing drives to the rim. Without, the Nuggets are missing their best all around player.

Next up, Timofey Mozgov. The man who has spawned his own Militia and is averaging 5.7 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks per game. Before his injured his ankle against the Lakers, Moz was averaging 8.2 points and 5.6 rebounds over his last fives games. His teammates were beginning to trust his offense and Moz was gaining confidence.

The one constant over this five game losing streak? Mozgov has missed all five games, said for seven minutes of the Lakers contest (where his injury came as he was extending the Nuggets lead off a layup, 49-46 with 10:00 to go in the 3rd quarter).

Karl has used Kosta Koufos, Chris Andersen, and Kenneth Faried to try to replace Moz and things just haven't been the same. Sure, Moz's numbers are not eye-popping, but his 1.2 blocks per game rank him around 27th in the league just behind the likes of Tyson Chandler (1.31) and Joakim Noah (1.22) and ahead of Brendan Haywood (1.12) and Emeka Okafor (1.00). Without the big man in there to help control the boards and protect the paint, the Nuggets defense has certainly struggled (can Moz defend the three-pointers too!?!).

Denver is on a horrific five game losing streak and the team has lost seven of their last eight, but they are still right in the thick of things out West. Oklahoma City is putting a little space between themselves and the rest of the conference, but not by much. The Nuggets are only 5.5 games out of first place in the West, 3 games out of second place, and the 4-9 seeds are all virtually tied at the moment with 11-12 losses each.

The season will have its ups-and-downs and it might be nice for the Nuggets to learn that they need to make some adjustments to learn how to keep winning. Denver has played in a lot of close games already, they have been blown out, and they have blown teams out. We're experiencing a lot of highs and lows and perhaps Nuggets Nation needs to take a page out of Andre Miller's book and just not get too high or low. It's not good for our collective blood pressure.

And don't forget ... Gallo and Mozgov will be coming back soon and after that the Nuggets may just add Wilson Chandler too. Help is on the way. Nobody said it would be easy ...

Nate_Timmons on Twitter: https://twitter.com/#!/Nate_Timmons
ntimmons73@yahoo.com

Poll

How worried are you about the Nuggets?

Not too worried. They'll still be a Top 4 playoff seed.

71 votes

A little worried, but I still think they make the playoffs.

163 votes

Pretty worried, they are going to be a No. 7 or No. 8 seed.

93 votes

Completely worried ... they'll miss the playoffs.

34 votes

361 votes | Poll has closed

1 recs | 170 comments

Comments

first!?

NugNugz - February 10, 2012 reply

2nd wind..

Nuggets just need to catch their 2nd wind. This week has been brutal. The team looks tired mentally and physically. It is the Nuggets turn to get whipped by the schedule.

Ain’t no hiding the fact that the team need to learn to execute in crunch time (whenever that may be). Right now teams are taking advantage of how sloppy the Nuggets are. They need to get better.

You are right, where the Nuggets want to go isn’t easy. Takes overcoming tough stretches. We will see how bad the Nuggets want to win over the 2nd half of the season.

djyoung71 - February 10, 2012 reply

I agree that our core problem is injuries

However the coaching staff must take a share of the blame. I have long agreed with the school of thought that George sgould expand his rotations across the bench, all those DNP-ers have game and energy to offer.

Nuggburg - February 10, 2012 via mobile reply

Couldn't AGREE more.

Nate Timmons - February 10, 2012 via Android app reply

agreed

GK said as much as well… he said he’s basically just looking for anyone who can provide energy, so he’s sees the same things you see.

UKnowULovedVanQwik - February 10, 2012 reply

Chandler's CBA team..

is officially locked into the playoffs now? Is that what I’m hearing? If so, anyone know the details of round 1? ie dates, best of… thank you.

UKnowULovedVanQwik - February 10, 2012 reply

Still two games left in the season

and they usually have 10-14 days off before playoffs. so I’d say their probably starting between the 25th to 29th of February. There are three rounds total, the first two rounds are best of 5 and the finals are best of 7.

donwoe - February 10, 2012 reply

would have been a great opportunity to tank just to get back to the U.S. sooner

but not worth having a whole nation against you and having to look over your shoulder or under your car the rest of your career.

jd80229 - February 10, 2012 reply

Uh yeah, that's the guy we want.

georgekarl - February 10, 2012 reply

If they win Sunday

Then I think they are in. They’re playing the worst team in the CBA, but guess you never know.

Glad that Chandler came in and put forth his best effort. Speaks volumes about the kind of player he is.

nugzin2040 - February 10, 2012 reply

btw good post Nate

I do think we all need to take a collective chill-pill… I think the reason there is so much outrage is because we were all just starting to believe that we were a “contender,” and oh how good it felt… what a tale of twists this season is turning out to be.

UKnowULovedVanQwik - February 10, 2012 reply

Theory

As Nate pointed out above, the injury to Mozgov may be effecting Denver’s defense more then you would expect. It might be because we are missing his protection of the paint and rebounds, not so much from the point of view of the opposing team, but from the point of view of the other Nuggets. The wings might be hedging down just a little bit more to protect the lane, which is opening up the 3 ball, and spiraling Denver’s defense down the drain. We still have K2 that can do much the same as Moz (maybe better), but he can’t play the whole game, and once the defense allows the 3 point shooters to get in rhythm it is game over.

Just a thought.

jbmmlang - February 10, 2012 reply

It is interesting...as many fans were calling for K2 to replace Mozzie

I am glad Karl stuck with Mozgov. I like Koufos and he is a fine player also, but Mozzie is a very underrated player. His confidence was starting to take off, which was part of the reason we ran off 7 wins in a row.

I hope he gets back soon.

NugzJunkie - February 11, 2012 reply

Good words to ease the craziness

I do believe we’ll play better at home. It wouldn’t suprise me to see a 10-13 game winning streak at home later this season.

The schedule has been brutual lately. If you look back we had three heart breaking losses with Memphis, LAC, and LAL. Then you get in to a 7 games in 10 nights with injuries.

They’ll start to get some of the teams with the other shoe off. That means Portland doesn’t only to get to play us on back to backs. That means GS doesn’t get to do the shimmy cause they’re nailing 50% from three.

I’m now impatient for Chandler to come back. He’s a great help defender from last year. Sat may not be our win but I see it coming to change soon.

remyrems - February 10, 2012 reply

Recent schedules

Will try to do a fan post about this with detailed #‘s if I can find time to finish up and better validate the analysis, but played around some with the schedule #’s in an attempt to ease the pain after last night’s game—looking at back to backs played vs. games played against teams on the tail end of a back to back, we’ve had the roughest combo of that of any set of teams in the league so far.

We’ve also had the misfortune of timing that with games against a number of teams in the opposite situation lately—for example, Golden State has barely played any back to backs to this point. Memphis, Houston, and the Clippers have all had very soft scheduling from that perspective as well.

Doesn’t mean I’m not frustrated with Karl’s playing time decisions around the rookies, given that the analysis just means that we should be digging deeper into the bench to get some fresh legs, but the schedule load does get much easier from this point for us, while getting much tougher for most of the remainder of the league.

ReluctantOptimist - February 10, 2012 reply

Glass half empty: Injuries hurt, but plenty of us Stiffs had same complaints when we were 14-5

There can be no doubt that Mozgov’s injury against the Lakers turned things in an ugly direction. And the impact of Gallo going down cannot be overstated.

Yet this team had serious defensive problems early on—just take a look at fan comments and proprietor posts from the first few games on, and not just on DS. The half-court offense has been ineffective and a source of loud complaints from the get-go. Karl’s rotations have been nothing short of bizarre, whether you look at it in terms of wins and losses right now or player development as the future becomes the present.

Bet most of us love a creative coach who isn’t afraid to toss out the playbook along with rigid adherence to traditional basketball positions (as in PG/SG/SF/PF/C) in order to exploit weaknesses and/or inject some energy into the proceedings. What scares the crap out of us is Karl’s apparent rigidity when this ostensible creativity is falling flatter than a pancake.

Injuries or no, this is a team in disarray. I never expected the Nuggets to be a top-four seed. I thought we’d be a blast to watch; that we’d scare the shit out of many of the top teams; and that we’d lose plenty of games that our talent might appear to dictate we should have won. All of that has taken place. It’s how we look doing it that is of concern. That and the fact that, at times, we’re far from competitive when we should be. Take the Golden State game, for example.

That’s on Karl. Could players play better? Of course. But it’s the coaching staff’s job to get the most out of them. They’re failing by most any measure. Win or lose, this team is lacking in serious, focused, effective leadership.

LongWindedHank - February 10, 2012 reply

+1

tknuckle - February 10, 2012 via mobile reply

+1 from me too

ParkHillNative - February 10, 2012 reply

yea other teams have improved whiIe this team has faIIen off.

aI and miIIer had some huge games that you wouIdnt reaIIy expect from them to win some of those road games, and teams didnt hit their 3s against us.

if miIIer, fernandez, and aI drop off is karI stiII goin to pIay them as much.

Rys - February 10, 2012 reply

yep, you lose 5 in a row with most of them being at home

not just on the players…collective fail

jd80229 - February 10, 2012 reply

Sorry KFH, (and fellow stiffs) your comments are usually right on

and Stiff are usually right on too.

But you and the chorus of agree-ers on this incredibly greened post are way off base

I had some optimism before season began and as season was going well. We might turn around this terrible storm. Maybe.

But, had you told me that important members of our team would miss the number of games that have been missed, I would never have been optimistic. If they dont get back, and even if they do but too late, this will still be a wasted season.

Had you told me that our starting center and then best player would go down in feb, I’d have been depressed.

I dont like karl but to blame him for not getting good performances from marginal and inexperienced players is simply misguided.

sgiustra - February 11, 2012 reply

Sorry you think we're off base

Maybe it’s not clear that we’re not necessarily ragging Karl about wins and losses. (Some may be, but not me.) This team looked bad in the ways we’re bitching about when we were 14-5, and it still does. Sure, when you’ve got all your aces in the game, the deficiencies will be more easily covered up. But in my eyes, those problems are just more exposed right now.

Take a look during a game. It matters little who is on the floor (and let’s not forget that there are still seven very experienced healthy guys on the active list, six if we’re not counting Andersen). The Nuggets are being beaten on defense and shut down in the half-court offense. Plus, they’re not able to get out on the break nearly as much as they count on being able to. These appear to be glaring problems of design and execution.

I’m still hoping for good things to come. A healthy roster will go a long way toward realizing that hope. But health alone won’t come close to fixing what’s wrong with how this team approaches the game on both ends of the court.

LongWindedHank - February 11, 2012 reply

Ok, so here is what I get from your comment

When the Nugs were going 14 – 5, it was something of a mirage because we were showing signs of weaknesses that would eventually be exposed

Now that we have suffered a slew of injuries and lost 7 out of eight, those weak spots are showing up.

Right?

Isnt it even more reasonable to assume that we are losing because of injuries than because of those weaknesses?

Finally, I think the Nugs will rebound, but come Mar 1st, we still wont be close to whole because gallo does not magically come back and play great. And, I’m frankly pessimistic about keeping health apart from what we are experiencing right now.

And so, there is a possibility that we will never be able to make up for what happens in Feb

PS I agree that we showed weaknesses even while winning but there are very few teams that dont have some weaknesses. So, no we were winning, but far from perfectly

sgiustra - February 11, 2012 reply

I'll REC this...

Good article. I’m still optimistic. All teams will go through bad stretch this season.

Pusherman - February 10, 2012 reply

All these last three losses have done

is hammer home how important Gallo is to this team.

Jeffrey Morton - February 10, 2012 reply

not to mention Mozzy

Clompy - February 10, 2012 reply

yup and please add Moz, Jeff

because we are seeing what happens when we rely on too many minutes from KK, too many Center minutes from Nene.

Here’s one aspect of whats going wrong with Moz and Gallo out. Notice we’re not outrunning anyone?

Yep, because Gallo and Moz are excellent fast breakers, Moz is especially fast for a Center and Gallo flat out busts his butt.

A side effect of this lack? Well, Ty is not a good half court guard so when we dont fast break one of our best weapons is rendered useless.

sgiustra - February 11, 2012 reply

half full....half empty....doesn't matter

depends on what we’re drinking and what kind of cup it is…..discuss :)

jd80229 - February 10, 2012 reply

Regardless of what is in the glass

the problem is a difficult one in physics. You take a glass 90% full with players, add in a coaching staff and you end up with only 50%. Is G.K. Dark Matter?

ThrowItDownBigManThrowItDown - February 10, 2012 reply

BTW....I thought I owned the word "optimism"

hmmmm….Gonna have to call the lawyers now. :-p

Jeffrey Morton - February 10, 2012 reply

Half full cup

I’m sure glad you wrote this. I was so excited and am now so dismayed; I almost can’t stand to watch them lose. Ok guys, REGROUP. YOU KNOW WHAT YOU CAN DO. Concentrate on what got you so far up the mountain! Rest!!! Karl… don’t assume what worked will always work. Do more homework on the other team and their 3’s. Practice your pick & roll offense and defense much more… Coach more!! Tell Harrington to rest his legs… He and Affallo are getting angry… that is what is needed more than anything… angry pride…here’s Tebowing for you!!!

Charles R. Murray - February 10, 2012 reply

have they won at home since Tebow showed up at a game?

that would be the worst jinx ever…would mean God now hates the Nuggets?? NOOOOO! ;)

jd80229 - February 10, 2012 reply

Hahaha coincidence? Nope

The U.N. Fab Five - February 10, 2012 via mobile reply

Agreed, that the sky is not falling

But a five game losing streak is not insignificant—it’s magnified more based on their being 16 less games this year.

Even if the team plays better, they have significantly hurt their chances for a top seed in the West.

nugzin2040 - February 10, 2012 reply

Half full/ half empty .... at least we can still drink from the cup

Can’t we?

Denver Stiffs